Why China cannot Afford a full fledged war against India?
At this stage China cannot afford full fledged war against India because:
1.. China’s economic growth and job market is largely dependent on manufacturing and international trade. Due to corona crisis and general recession, economic growth has suffered and there is no positive signs in near future. China cannot afford to destroy the remaining chances of revival of economy by waging a war.
2. China is facing global blame and isolation on covid-19 issue. Though China is trying to maintain a bold face, but they have seen the mood of global community during World Health Assembly meet which passed the resolution for the investigation into the role of WHO in handling covid issue. In brief, global strategic alignment is moving against China.
3. If we go by the Chinese military confrontations in the past, China always picks up soft target for such military intervention: Korea war 1950–53, Indo-China war, 1962 and Vietnam war-1979. China attacked India in 1962 as she was sure of major victory due to India’s lack of defence preparedness. The Global Times always reminds India of 1962 war whenever there is a tension between India and China. But they also understand that India of 2020 is different from India of 1962 in many respects. They also know that it is not a one sided affair now.
If China is capable of taking bold military steps, why they could not confront the US in last one decade, which is regularly organizing ‘Freedom of Navigation Drills in their backyard in South China Sea?
But why Military Show Off with India?
Yet in spite of many odds China needs some military show off with India to divert the attention of domestic audience and global media from economic woes, role in covid management. The stand off with India also send a message to China’s other rivals domestic and regional_ People of Hong Kong, Taiwan, Vietnam etc that China can confront India, where others stand in comparison?
But China’s afford to address so many domestic, regional and global challenges by belligerent means is likely to backfire. At this stage, it may provoke a global strategic alliance against China from the West to the East, which may wipe out all her gains in coming years.
Image: Courtesy Bloomberg
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